</aethereum> / tools / collision-risk-calculator
AI Agent Collision Risk Calculator
When several AI coding agents work the same codebase, they collide on shared interfaces. Estimate how often that is likely to happen on your team each week. The numbers below are an illustrative estimate with the assumptions shown, anchored to published research, not a precise prediction.
~100%
estimated chance of at least one agent collision this week
~20.8
illustrative conflicting changes per week
10
AI agents working in parallel
// how this estimate works
This is an illustrative estimate, not a precise prediction. We assume a 5-day work week and model the share of changes that touch a shared interface as agents divided by contracts (capped at 1): more agents over the same surface raises overlap, more contracts spreads it out. We then apply the empirically observed rate that 28% of AI agent pull requests hit merge conflicts (ACM AIware, 2026). Weekly chance is a simple independent-trial complement across the week's changes. Real risk depends on how coupled your modules are and how your team coordinates.
Context: 72% of teams report AI-generated code has broken production (Harness, 2025). Sharing contracts and intent across agents is how you catch the collision before it lands.
Aethereumgives every agent the team's shared contracts and intent, so a conflicting change raises an alert before it lands.
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